If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But the reality is the numbers don’t support a crash. They point to slow, steady, and sustainable growth.
While prices will vary by region, and Wellesley, MA may see its own pace of change, national projections show continued appreciation, not decline, over the next five years.
What Experts Are Actually Predicting
According to the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathers input from over 100 leading housing market economists each quarter, the consensus is clear:
- Home prices are expected to rise approximately 15% between now and 2029.
- The most optimistic experts forecast growth closer to 26%.
- Even the most conservative outlook anticipates around 5% appreciation.
Not one of these expert groups is calling for a nationwide decline, and that includes steady, high-demand markets like Wellesley and Greater Boston.
How Today’s Market Compares to Normal Trends
If you look back at the last 25 years, home values in the U.S. have typically appreciated 4-5% per year. The new forecasts call for 2-3.5% annual growth, slightly lower than average, but far more balanced and sustainable.
In 2020–2022, prices rose too fast due to record-low inventory and intense buyer competition. Some markets saw increases of 15-20% in a single year.
What we’re seeing now is the market returning to a more stable rhythm, one that favors long-term strength over short-term spikes.
Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon
The idea that “what goes up must come down” doesn’t really apply to housing. Historically, home prices have continued to rise because of one simple factor: Supply and demand.
Even with higher interest rates and affordability challenges, there are still far more buyers than homes available. That imbalance continues to put upward pressure on prices, especially in desirable areas like Wellesley, MA, known for its top-rated schools, proximity to Boston, and strong community appeal.
In and around Wellesley:
- Inventory remains limited, especially for well-maintained single-family homes.
- Buyer demand is fueled by relocation professionals, local families, and Boston commuters.
- Homes in popular neighborhoods continue to attract multiple offers when priced correctly.
This is exactly why experts, and local professionals like Paul Neavyn of Gibson Sotheby’s International Realty, agree: The market isn’t collapsing, it’s stabilizing.
What This Means for Wellesley Homeowners and Buyers
For homeowners in Wellesley, this is encouraging news. Your equity remains strong and is likely to continue growing over time, even if the rate of appreciation slows slightly.
For buyers, it means waiting for a crash may not be the best strategy, as prices are projected to continue climbing, albeit more gradually.
The market is adjusting, not declining. And as balance returns, new opportunities are emerging for both sides, especially when guided by an agent who understands local data and negotiation trends.
Paul Neavyn, REALTOR® with Gibson Sotheby’s International Realty, helps Wellesley clients:
- Understand what these trends mean for their specific property or search
- Make data-driven decisions based on current market analytics
- Navigate the process with clear communication and confidence
The Bottom Line
If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, the data tells a different story. The question isn’t if prices will rise, it’s by how much.
Every neighborhood and price point in Wellesley is unique, so understanding your local market is key.
Let’s connect to discuss what’s happening specifically in the Wellesley housing market and how Paul Neavyn can help you make confident decisions in this evolving environment.
Work With the Experts in Wellesley, MA
With 44+ five-star Google reviews, 25+ five-star Zillow reviews, $18M in sales last year, and 60 successful transactions, Paul Neavyn is proud to be one of the most trusted and top-performing REALTORS® in Wellesley, MA.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, work with a professional who combines local market knowledge, data-backed insight, and seven years of hands-on experience to help you succeed.
Curious what your Wellesley home is worth? Request a free valuation and personalized market analysis with Paul today.